In other areas, diplomacy would be quieter and lessideological with Capriles as president, but it would be no lessambitious.

As skillful as Henrique Capriles Radonski, the oppositioncandidate, may be, the playing field is so uneven that he appearsto stand little chance.

According to this logic, the “undecided” are actuallyleaning toward Capriles, and if their number is larger than Chávez’s margin in the polls, the caudillo will lose.

In that case, Chávez’s designated successor, Nicolás Maduro, will make short work of opposition candidate Henrique Capriles in the upcoming election.

Whoever becomes president – whether Nicolás Maduro, thedesignated Chávista heir, or Henrique Capriles, the oppositioncandidate – will be heard in the international community.

Maduro would, for example, maintain Venezuela’s support andparticipation in the negotiations between Colombia’s government andthe FARC guerrillas; but so would Capriles, because doing so serves Venezuela’s national interest well.

Indeed, regardless of whether Maduro or Capriles wins, thenew president will have to devote all, or nearly all, of hisattention during his first months (if not years) in office toconsolidating his power.

The Komishon Akshon Sosial (Capriles Commission) discussed these problems in its report Aan de Slag! Een sociaa-economisch actieprogramma (Down to work: a socio-economic programme of action) and recommended a two-track programme to resolve or at least alleviate the social and socio-economic problems with which the Netherlands Antilles was struggling at the time.